Blackhead wreck: estadísticas meteorológicas e historia del viento

40.2269° S, 176.794° E
28.08.2026 (Friday)
  • Good kite forecast: wind 6.6 m/s, gusts 13.3 m/s, no major model differences
  • Unlikely breeze — 9% probability
  • Significant gusts forecast (13.3 m/s)
  • Wave height – experience required (2.1 m)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (12.4°C)
29.08.2026 (Saturday)
  • Rain detected – challenging conditions
  • Models wind forecasts diverge significantly (> 5.1 m/s) (ECMWF 9.8 m/s vs ICON Global 4.8 m/s)
  • Unlikely breeze — 5% probability
  • Light wind – experience required (5.9 m/s)
  • Significant gusts forecast (12.9 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (12.8°C)
30.08.2026 (Sunday)
  • Wind too strong – unsafe conditions (17.4 m/s)
  • High gust forecast (26.9 m/s)
  • Rain detected – challenging conditions
  • Models wind forecasts diverge significantly (> 5.3 m/s) (ECMWF 18.7 m/s vs ICON Global 13.5 m/s)
  • Unlikely breeze — 0% probability
  • Wave height – experience required (2.1 m)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (12.5°C)
31.08.2026 (Monday)
  • High gust forecast (22.4 m/s)
  • Rain detected – challenging conditions
  • Unlikely breeze — 1% probability
  • Strong wind – experience required (14.2 m/s)
  • Wave height – experience required (2.3 m)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (12.6°C)
01.09.2026 (Tuesday)
  • Good kite forecast: wind 11.9 m/s, gusts 19.7 m/s, no major model differences
  • Unlikely breeze — 3% probability
  • Strong wind – experience required (11.9 m/s)
  • Significant gusts forecast (19.7 m/s)
  • Wave height – experience required (2.3 m)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (12.5°C)
02.09.2026 (Wednesday)
  • High gust forecast (23.1 m/s)
  • Models wind forecasts diverge significantly (> 8.5 m/s) (GFS27 13.0 m/s vs ECMWF 4.5 m/s)
  • Unlikely breeze — 0% probability
  • Strong wind – experience required (13.0 m/s)
  • Wave height – experience required (2.3 m)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (12.6°C)
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