Tolaga Bay (surfing): weather statistics and wind history

38.3735° S, 178.31° E
12.09.2026 (Saturday)
  • Wind too light – not suitable (1.5 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (13.7°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 1% probability
13.09.2026 (Sunday)
  • Good kite forecast: wind 6.5 m/s, gusts 9.4 m/s, no major model differences
  • Significant gusts forecast (9.4 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (13.9°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 9% probability
14.09.2026 (Monday)
  • Wind too light – not suitable (3.1 m/s)
  • Wetsuit required (14.1°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 8% probability
15.09.2026 (Tuesday)
  • Good kite forecast: wind 6.0 m/s, gusts 8.0 m/s, no major model differences
  • Significant gusts forecast (8.0 m/s)
  • Wetsuit required (14.3°C)
  • Low breeze chance — 47% probability
16.09.2026 (Wednesday)
  • Wind too light – not suitable (3.5 m/s)
  • Wetsuit required (14.5°C)
  • Moderate breeze chance — 59% probability
17.09.2026 (Thursday)
  • Wind too light – not suitable (3.7 m/s)
  • Wetsuit required (14.3°C)
  • Low breeze chance — 48% probability
18.09.2026 (Friday)
  • Rain detected – challenging conditions
  • Models wind forecasts diverge significantly (> 8.9 m/s) (ICON Global 13.9 m/s vs GFS27 5.0 m/s)
  • Light wind – experience required (5.0 m/s)
  • Significant gusts forecast (9.9 m/s)
  • Wetsuit required (14.2°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 1% probability
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