Refuge Bay (VIC): weather statistics and wind history

39.0389° S, 146.474° E
08.09.2026 (Tuesday)
  • Good kite forecast: wind 8.6 m/s, gusts 13.7 m/s, no major model differences
  • Significant gusts forecast (13.7 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (13.6°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 18% probability
09.09.2026 (Wednesday)
  • Rain detected – challenging conditions
  • Strong wind – experience required (10.7 m/s)
  • Significant gusts forecast (14.6 m/s)
  • Wave height – experience required (2.6 m)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (13.5°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 0% probability
10.09.2026 (Thursday)
  • Good kite forecast: wind 7.6 m/s, gusts 10.8 m/s, no major model differences
  • Significant gusts forecast (10.8 m/s)
  • Wave height – experience required (2.4 m)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (13.4°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 1% probability
11.09.2026 (Friday)
  • Good kite forecast: wind 5.1 m/s, gusts 7.5 m/s, no major model differences
  • Light wind – experience required (5.1 m/s)
  • Significant gusts forecast (7.5 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (13.7°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 15% probability
12.09.2026 (Saturday)
  • Wind too light – not suitable (3.6 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (13.8°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 23% probability
13.09.2026 (Sunday)
  • Models wind forecasts diverge significantly (> 5.2 m/s) (ECMWF 7.5 m/s vs ICON Global 2.3 m/s)
  • Light wind – experience required (5.6 m/s)
  • Significant gusts forecast (14.2 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (14.0°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 2% probability
14.09.2026 (Monday)
  • High gust forecast (20.2 m/s)
  • Rain detected – challenging conditions
  • Models wind forecasts diverge significantly (> 5.9 m/s) (GFS27 10.7 m/s vs ECMWF 4.9 m/s)
  • Strong wind – experience required (10.7 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (13.9°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 0% probability
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