Lyall Bay, Wellington: weather statistics and wind history

41.3297° S, 174.798° E
09.09.2026 (Wednesday)
  • Models wind forecasts diverge significantly (> 6.3 m/s) (LEW 14.4 m/s vs ICON Global 8.1 m/s)
  • Strong wind – experience required (14.1 m/s)
  • Significant gusts forecast (18.6 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (13.7°C)
  • Low breeze chance — 25% probability
10.09.2026 (Thursday)
  • Heavy rain – dangerous conditions possible (>2)
  • Models wind forecasts diverge significantly (> 5.9 m/s) (GFS27 14.4 m/s vs ICON Global 8.5 m/s)
  • Strong wind – experience required (14.4 m/s)
  • Significant gusts forecast (19.0 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (13.6°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 17% probability
11.09.2026 (Friday)
  • Rain detected – challenging conditions
  • Strong wind – experience required (10.9 m/s)
  • Significant gusts forecast (13.4 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (13.5°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 8% probability
12.09.2026 (Saturday)
  • Good kite forecast: wind 7.7 m/s, gusts 10.5 m/s, no major model differences
  • Significant gusts forecast (10.5 m/s)
  • Dangerous wave height forecast (3.1 m)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (13.6°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 17% probability
13.09.2026 (Sunday)
  • Wind too light – not suitable (3.9 m/s)
  • Wave height – experience required (2.6 m)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (13.7°C)
  • High breeze chance — 81% probability
14.09.2026 (Monday)
  • Models wind forecasts diverge significantly (> 5.2 m/s) (GFS27 8.6 m/s vs ICON Global 3.4 m/s)
  • Significant gusts forecast (12.1 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (13.9°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 5% probability
15.09.2026 (Tuesday)
  • Models wind forecasts diverge significantly (> 10.4 m/s) (GFS27 14.3 m/s vs ICON Global 3.9 m/s)
  • Strong wind – experience required (14.3 m/s)
  • Significant gusts forecast (20.0 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (13.8°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 6% probability
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