isla nauguru: weather statistics and wind history

52.4869° S, 74.5205° W
11.09.2026 (Friday)
  • Good kite forecast: wind 9.1 m/s, gusts 9.6 m/s, no major model differences
  • Significant gusts forecast (9.6 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (6.7°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 2% probability
12.09.2026 (Saturday)
  • Wind too strong – unsafe conditions (16.2 m/s)
  • High gust forecast (21.2 m/s)
  • Rain detected – challenging conditions
  • Models wind forecasts diverge significantly (> 5.6 m/s) (GFS27 16.2 m/s vs LEW 10.6 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (6.9°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 0% probability
13.09.2026 (Sunday)
  • Heavy rain – dangerous conditions possible (>2)
  • Models wind forecasts diverge significantly (> 8.1 m/s) (GFS27 14.6 m/s vs LEW 6.5 m/s)
  • Strong wind – experience required (14.6 m/s)
  • Significant gusts forecast (19.5 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (7.0°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 0% probability
14.09.2026 (Monday)
  • Rain detected – challenging conditions
  • Models wind forecasts diverge significantly (> 10.6 m/s) (GFS27 13.8 m/s vs LEW 3.2 m/s)
  • Strong wind – experience required (13.8 m/s)
  • Significant gusts forecast (15.6 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (7.0°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 2% probability
15.09.2026 (Tuesday)
  • Too light wind – kite foiling only (4.8 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (6.8°C)
  • Low breeze chance — 36% probability
16.09.2026 (Wednesday)
  • Wind too strong – unsafe conditions (15.0 m/s)
  • High gust forecast (20.2 m/s)
  • Rain detected – challenging conditions
  • Models wind forecasts diverge significantly (> 8.8 m/s) (GFS27 15.0 m/s vs LEW 6.2 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (6.9°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 0% probability
17.09.2026 (Thursday)
  • Rain detected – challenging conditions
  • Models wind forecasts diverge significantly (> 7.1 m/s) (ICON Global 12.7 m/s vs LEW 5.6 m/s)
  • Strong wind – experience required (10.6 m/s)
  • Significant gusts forecast (13.4 m/s)
  • Low water temp – risk of hypothermia (7.0°C)
  • Unlikely breeze — 1% probability
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