Expert tips on weather forecasting for hiking and cycling

Hiking and cycling are two completely different types of outdoor activities. What they have in common is that they are the simplest and therefore most popular. In addition, both are highly dependent on the weather. In brief, hikers don't like rain and extreme cold or heat, and cyclists don't like wind either. But there are other weather elements, which are also important in these sports.

In this article, as someone who does both of them, I will give some tips on weather forecasting for hiking and cycling using the Windy.app as an example.

Ivan Kuznetsov, outdoor writer from the Italian Alps and Finnish Karelia

Hiking

Avoid rains, snowfalls and all other precipitation the day before a hike

When the sun finally comes out, we always want to go straight into the woods or mountains. But wet vegetation, earth, rocks, and other surfaces as easily as the rain itself will wet and make your clothes dirty, greatly slowing down your movement and making your hike less safe (you can easily slip and get injured, which is critical in hiking). Surfaces also dry not immediately, but from several hours to days if the weather is cloudy. After the rains, rivers overflow heavily, and it becomes impossible to wade. And so on... The heavier the rain and / or the more rains the day before your hike — the worse. The same applies to mountain bikers and bikepackers, but almost no applies to road cyclists (asphalt dries out quickly, especially in the sun). So before a hike or bike trip, check the precipitation forecast not only for the day of activity, but also the day before.

Compare the precipitation forecast with the precipitation map

That's how you will get a clearer, larger picture in addition to icons and numbers in your app. The map is also useful for seeing how precipitation will move. Sometimes the forecast in the chart shows precipitation, but on the map, it turns out that it affects you just a little bit. And vice versa: you are out of the rain zone at 10 am, but it will reach your route by lunchtime. The map also helps you understand where it’s raining in your neighboring areas so you can assess the overall situation and draw your conclusions. In a forecast chart, you would have to check hundreds of spots — it’s just impossible. In other words, the weather map for precipitation and other elements is extremely useful.

Check not only the daytime but also the nighttime weather forecast

There can also be heavy rain at night, which seems unimportant for a hike the next day. But after it in the morning, everything will also be wet (see above). It’s the same with the temperature: it may be warm and comfortable during the day, but in the morning it’s 10 degrees lower, and you need to get out of camp at 6 am. You know yourself that it doesn’t get warm immediately after sunrise, but usually only by about noon — a full six hours of travel, during which you have time to freeze a hundred times.

Don’t forget the dew point temperature along with the regular one

At dew point, moisture forms on the grass and other surfaces, making the terrain less comfortable to walk on. Yes, it’s not as bad as rain or the rain the day/night before, but just like after the rain, it’s easier to get your clothes wet, slip, and so on on on dewy grass.

Lite Weather Profile in the Windy.app for iOS. Photo: Kalen Emsley / Unsplash

Cycling

Break up the weather forecast into 1-hour steps from the standard 3-hours

This is a unique feature of the app, which is especially important for cyclists more than for hikers. It allows you to bypass the 3-hour only forecast in some weather models. Thanks to the feature, you will know exactly how the weather will change during your normal cycling or electric biking trip, which in my experience (and also from other road cyclists’) lasts just about 2–3 hours, rarely 5–6 hours. Agree that three small forecasts of an hour each look better than the overall forecast for that period?

Ride a bike before 10 am or after 4 pm when the UV Index is 6–7 (orange) or higher

In the middle of the day, when the sun is at its strongest, it's easy to get overheat and sunburns. The strong sun is a real danger. Usually, this index values is when the air temperature is 25–30 degrees Celsius and above. The UV index is more important for cyclists than hikers because they need to ride all the time and have nowhere to shelter from the sun to wait out the strong sun that has to be “carried” on you.

Compare the weather forecast with the nearest weather station

They show real-time data about the weather here and now. That's how you'll know how accurate the forecast is. There are over 40,000 official stations in the world, so the chance of finding at least a few near you is very high also because the Windy.app contains more than 30,000 of them. For example, there’s at least one station a couple of kilometers from my house and several more within a couple of dozen kilometers. I check them regularly.

Bike Weather Profile in the Windy.app for iOS. Photo: Jens Herrndorff Rou / Unsplash

Hike and Bike

Check air temperature at the top and bottom stations of the nearest ski resort

To do this, switch from Bike and Lite (for hiking and travel in general) to the Snow Weather Profile. This is usually between 1,000 and 2,500 meters at altitude, while the normal temperature forecast shows it at 10 meters. Hiking and biking trails often pass through high mountain passes and mountains where ski resorts are located, but begin in valleys where it is always warmer, less windy, cloudless, and may not rain. The weather is usually worse on the passes and in the mountains. Although the opposite situation can happen: clear on the summit/pass, rain in the valley. In any case, this way you can know what to expect from the weather at the top and compare it to the weather in the valley or on the plain. You can also add these features to your custom weather profile for biking and hiking.

Watch the wind gust forecast, not just the wind direction and speed

It is also usually neglected by outdoor enthusiasts. Some of them may not even be aware of the existence of this weather element. But it is. The danger of wind gusts is that with a small wind of 2–3 meters per second, gusts can reach 5–6 meters per second and much more. The wind is generally critical for cyclists, slowing your ride, but powerful gusts can knock you off the road together with a bike. This is also because almost all modern bikes, which cost over 2000 dollars/euro, are made entirely of carbon (type of sturdy plastic), including not only the frame but also the wheels, handlebar, saddle, and everything else, that is, they are the very light weight of only 7–8 kg, some even 6 kg — the allowable official limit for pro racing bike from the International Cyclists Union (UCI). For hikers, the wind is less critical, but gusts can also bring great discomfort: you will freeze even on a warm sunny day at +20 degrees and above. So avoid cycling and hiking with strong gusts, or take extra clothes with you. A vest or jacket, as well as a hat, gloves, and buff, are indispensable things that I do not part with in the mountains even in summer (well, except during the African heatwaves in Europe, which have become commonplace with global warming, it seems).

Make it a habit to check the cloudiness forecast

In the Windy.app you can find it in almost all weather profiles. Read it like this: one layer — low cloudiness, two layers — average cloudiness, three layers — overcast. This is another weather elements, which is often neglected by hikers and bikers, focusing only on temperature and precipitation. But on a hot day, clouds cover the strong sun, which is critical for both for those who move around the mountains on their own two feet and on two wheels. Conversely, when the weather is cold, the lack of clouds will be a big plus — it’s always warmer in the direct sun than in the shade. In other words, sunny / overcast and cold / warm days are completely different things. Keep an eye on their combination.

Consider relative humidity above 40–60% as an aggravating factor for your activity

With this level of humidity high temperatures are much harder to tolerate. As one of the basic weather elements, humidity around 80–100% is considered critical. It’s like being in a sauna. High humidity is also worse to dry things that you soaked in a hike or a bike ride, which happens very often.

Note the exact time of sunrise and sunset in your place and season

You can find them at the end of the weather forecast table or on the Lite Weather Profile widget. Moving around in the dark is not recommended, either on foot or by bike. In the first case, it is simply impossible without a light source, in the second, without signal lights on a bicycle, it is dangerous, even if the roads are lit. But even more important is the twilight period. Darkness comes just about 30 minutes after sunset in southern regions of the world. In my experience, I don’t recommend watching the sunset on mountain tops and passes if the descent to the shelter is longer than half an hour — you just won’t make it back before dark and will get stuck on the trail. This has happened to me a few times, I’ve miraculously made it down on 1% charge in my phone without a headlamp, which I now always takes with me. Same with the bike: on evening workouts, ride out so that you return in daylight, or at most at dusk, but not in the dark, and calculate the time you need to cover the intended distance. Put flashlights on your bike.

Study the weather history for hikes and bike trips longer than 10 days

After that the quality of the forecast is greatly diminished. It’s also useful for trips of a month or more to find out in general what the region’s weather has been like in the past. Knowing the average temperature, precipitation, and wind, you can roughly figure out how many good days there will be during the month, and how many you will have to spend at home, take the right things for this or that weather to lighten your luggage, and so on. In Windy.app, weather history include also atmospheric pressure and is available for literally every day for the past 10 years (2012–2021), as well as averages by month and year, and for the entire decade.